Global markets focus on US data

In global markets, eyes are on inflation data to be announced in this country and the comments to come from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell next week. US inflation data will be on global markets' radars next week. In the US, next week's statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be followed on Tuesday, wholesale stocks on Wednesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and weekly unemployment benefit applications on Thursday, Producer Price Index (PPI) and University of Michigan consumer confidence index on Friday. According to data announced in the country on Friday, non-farm employment increased by 206 thousand people in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose from 4 percent to 4.1 percent. There was a downward revision in the non-farm employment data for April and May. Speaking at a panel held by the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal last week as part of the "ECB Central Banking Forum", Fed Chairman Powell drew attention to the signs of a resumption of the disinflationary trend following the pause in the first quarter and said, "We have made considerable progress in reducing inflation to our target." Emphasizing that they wanted to be more certain that inflation would fall sustainably towards 2 percent before starting to ease monetary policy, Powell reiterated that they wanted to see more data of the type seen recently. German inflation data stands out next week in Europe. Foreign trade balance in Germany on Monday, inflation in Germany and growth and industrial production in the UK on Thursday, and current account balance in Germany on Friday will be monitored. All eyes are on balance of payments and industrial production in Turkey. While the upward trend was prominent last week in Turkey, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul completed the week with a 1.91 percent gain at 10,851.78 points, achieving its highest weekly close of all time. Following data showing that inflation is slowing, the BIST 100 index tested above 10,940 points last week and then settled above 10,850 points. According to data released domestically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.64 percent on a monthly basis in June, while the Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI) increased by 1.38 percent. Annual inflation was 71.6 percent in consumer prices and 50.09 percent in domestic producer prices. The CPI had increased by 3.37 percent in May and 75.45 percent on an annual basis. On the other hand, foreign institutions have begun to lower their inflation expectations for Turkey. US investment bank JP Morgan lowered its year-end inflation forecast for Turkey from 43.5 percent to 42.5 percent, and from 25.2 percent to 25 percent for the end of 2025. The other major US bank, Morgan Stanley, lowered its 2024 year-end inflation forecast for Turkey from 43.4 percent to 42.4 percent, while British bank Barclays lowered its forecast from 44.5 percent to 44 percent. The USD/TL rate closed the week at 32.6660, 0.15 percent below the previous close.