What would Palestinians' most popular leader do if freed? No one knows

Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of Trump's Gaza peace plan, but Israel did not release high-profile prisoner Marwan Barghouti.

With the announcement on Wednesday evening that Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of US President Donald Trump's peace plan for Gaza, Hamas' demand that prominent Palestinian prisoners be included in any hostage swap deal has once again come to the fore.One of the most high-profile names on the list was Marwan Barghouti, a man who has been behind bars for more than two decades as Israeli authorities sentenced him to consecutive life terms in prison and still regard him as a terrorist mastermind.Barghouti's release was a "red line" for Israel in the latest peace talks, no matter how hard Hamas tried, Israeli intelligence circles told Euronews on Wednesday.This was confirmed by Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian, who told reporters on Thursday, “I can tell you at this point in time that he will not be part of this release."Letting some of the highest-profile Palestinian prisoners walk free is too great a risk to Israel, as it worries that history will repeat itself.Senior Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was released in a 2011 exchange and went on to be one of the principal architects of the 7 October 2023 incursion into southern Israel that sparked the current war in Gaza.According to Israeli Channel 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured National Security Minister Ben Gvir that "symbols of terrorism, led by Marwan Barghouti," would not be released under any circumstances.Who is Marwan Barghouti?To Palestinians, the 66-year-old Barghouti, an elected official who then led often-violent demonstrations and an armed branch of Fatah called Tanzim during the Second Intifada, is a national hero.For many years, polls have shown that Barghouti is the most well-liked Palestinian political figure and suggest he would easily win presidential elections, which have not been held since 2005.He remains far more popular than incumbent Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas: in a May 2025 poll by Ramallah-based PCPSR featuring three potential presidential candidates — Barghouti, Abbas, and Hamas leader Khalid Mishal — 50% of the respondents said they would vote for Barghouti.In hypothetical leadership polls conducted before the 7 October attack, Barghouti defeated Hamas leader Haniyeh 61% to 34%, according to Arab Barometer.Yet, while Barghouti described himself as "a politician, not a military man," Netanyahu famously quipped in 2017 that "calling Barghouti a leader and parliamentarian is like calling (Bashar) al-Assad a paediatrician," in a reference to the now-deposed Syrian dictator.After leading the Second Intifada, Barghouti was arrested in 2002 and two years later given five life sentences plus 40 years in prison by Israeli courts for orchestrating attacks that killed five Israelis.Other counts include attempted murder over a failed car bomb attack near Malha Mall that exploded prematurely, resulting in the deaths of two suicide bombers, and membership and activity in a terrorist organisation.Barghouti offered no defence, refusing to recognise the legitimacy of Israeli institutions, but also rejected any connection to the incidents.Barghouti, who claimed he spoke to every Israeli politician who would meet with him, has supported the creation of a Palestinian state in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip based on the 1967 demarcation lines, a stance more moderate than Hamas', and has referred to Israel as "our future neighbour."While in prison in 2006, he co-authored the National Conciliation Document of the Prisoners with leaders from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other factions, in which he called for Palestinian unity.He is still seen as someone who could potentially bolster the Fatah party, founded by Yasser Arafat, whose leadership he once called "old, weak and alienated," and unite the Palestinians across the political spectrum, including Hamas' supporters.But apart from very sporadic statements from prison over the past decades, little is known about his views, International Crisis Group's senior analyst for Israel and Palestine Amjad Iraqi told Euronews."There's a lot of iconography and the legend built around him. But very few people know the man himself, or have heard him speak, or have seen him for a very long time," Iraqi said."This is a man who has been in prison for something like 20 years. Not many people really know his politics today, what he would make of the situation today," he explained.'You can't have a Messiah complex on Barghouti'In fact, no one has been able to speak to Barghouti for at least two years.Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, Barghouti has been held in solitary confinement and, according to Palestinian prisoner rights groups, has been subjected to severe mistreatment. His family has expressed fears for his safety.Barghouti was last seen in August, when Ben Gvir visited his cell and was recorded saying, "You will not defeat us.""Whoever messes with the people of Israel, whoever murders our children, whoever murders our women - we will obliterate them. You need to know this, throughout all of history," Ben Gvir was heard telling Barghouti in a publicly released video.On the Palestinian side, the elephant in the room is whether Fatah and Abbas would genuinely like to be challenged by a popular figure amid a total loss of popularity.At the same time, Hamas, which still sees its place in the Palestinian national movement, would not be too welcoming of a challenger either, experts say."Even if down the line he gets released there's too many assumptions about what he can do," Iraqi said."He'd going into a party which itself has lost so much popular legitimacy he's being released into a national movement which has never been more ruptured."According to Dr Matthew Levitt, director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, demanding Barghouti's release was not about him — but about Hamas maintaining its image and influence."Hamas historically has sought release of prominent Palestinians in Israeli jails who are not members of Hamas so as to portray themselves as fighting for all Palestinians rather than just seeking the release of their own members only," Dr Levitt told Euronews."The fact that Barghouti is, apparently, not on the list of those to be released is a telling sign that Hamas is not negotiating from a position of strength," he explained.Meanwhile, experts believe no single person — Barghouti included — is the solution to all the Palestinian woes, political and otherwise."You can’t have a Messiah complex on Barghouti," Iraqi said."Yes, the individual leaders are important, but to put this much weight and baggage on a single individual to correct something that' masses of others have been unable to shift for years, not decades, I think is too high an expectation to place."