EURUSD

This week's main direction for the currency pair will be determined by the FOMC interest rate decision to be announced on Wednesday. A widely expected 25 basis point cut to 4.25%, followed by Powell's dovish statements, could weaken the Dollar and push the pair above the 1.17264 pivot level to resistances at 1.17727 and 1.17959. However, if Tuesday's US Retail Sales data comes in stronger than expected, there could be pressure on the pair due to the perception that the Fed's position will be eased. In the case of a hawkish surprise from the Fed (not cutting interest rates), a sharp decline towards the supports at 1.17052 and 1.16801 is likely. While the Eurozone CPI data on Wednesday is expected to be in line with expectations, a possible surprise could create additional volatility in the pair.