Japan's Election Result May Encourage Regional Rivals
In an unexpected development, Japan's recent general elections resulted in the ruling coalition experiencing its most significant setback in 15 years, which could impact the balance of power in East Asia. The coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is now seeking support from opposition parties to maintain its control in the lower house. This political upheaval occurs during a sensitive period as the U.S. prepares for its own presidential elections next week, potentially further affecting geopolitical dynamics.
The election outcome in Japan, a key ally of the U.S. in Asia, has raised concerns among analysts regarding possible actions from regional rivals. Speculation suggests that China may increase its territorial violations and intensify pressure on Taiwan. Similarly, it is thought that North Korea, which is strengthening security ties with Russia, might enhance its ballistic missile testing.
Tomohiko Taniguchi, a former advisor to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, expressed concerns that China's military provocations, especially towards Taiwan, may become more frequent. He also predicted an increase in violations of Japanese airspace and waters. Despite the election results, both Tokyo and Washington reaffirmed their commitment to the Japan-U.S. security alliance. Meanwhile, Beijing refrained from commenting, labeling the election as Japan's internal matter.
The LDP's failure to secure a majority in the elections reflects a growing trend among voters in the U.S. and allied countries distancing themselves from established political parties, a trend also observed in recent elections in France and Germany. Japan's strategic location is crucial for U.S. security interests in Asia, as it hosts the largest U.S. forces overseas, which serve as a deterrent against China and North Korea.
In response to China's increasing military activities, Japan has initiated its most extensive military expansion since World War II. The five-year plan announced in 2022 aims to double defense spending to finance new weapons, including long-range missiles capable of reaching mainland China.
The U.S. presidential election also contributes to uncertainties; polls indicate a competitive race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democrat rival Kamala Harris. Trump had previously urged Japan to increase its financial contributions to U.S. military support and implied that he might not accept the election results if he loses.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed the LDP's commitment to defense spending plans and deeper security ties with the U.S. at a press conference on Monday. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller supported Ishiba's stance, emphasizing the importance of the U.S.-Japan relationship for global peace and security.
Earlier this year, the U.S. and Japan announced a significant revision of their security alliance, which includes joint missile development and an elevation of U.S. military command in Japan. However, the LDP's need to negotiate with smaller parties for government support may complicate the financing of key defense projects.
Tobias Harris from Japan Foresight highlighted the challenges of increasing taxes under new government structures. The Democratic Party for the People, a potential collaborator with the LDP in parliament, is campaigning for significant tax cuts. As noted by Kevin Maher, former head of the Japan Affairs Office at the U.S. Department of State and current advisor, discussions regarding the next defense strategy and related costs are imminent, as more than half of Japan’s defense enhancements are complete.
The recent developments in Japan's political landscape and the upcoming U.S. presidential election are being closely monitored by allies and rivals, with potential profound impacts on regional security and international relations.