German Chamber of Commerce and Industry Predicts GDP Contraction for Germany in 2024

The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) has revised Germany's economic forecast, projecting a 0.2% contraction in the country's GDP for 2024. This marks a change from the previous recession forecast made in May. A similar trend is expected for 2025; the zero growth projection indicates that there will be no actual growth in Germany's GDP for the third consecutive year.

During the presentation of the autumn economic survey, DIHK Managing Director Martin Wansleben characterized the situation as a persistent structural crisis within the country rather than a simple cyclical downturn. The survey, reflecting the views of 25,000 German companies from various sectors and regions, shows an increasing pessimism among businesses. A significant portion of companies, 31%, expects the business environment to worsen in the coming months, up from 26% in the previous survey. In contrast, only 13% anticipate an improvement in business conditions.

Wansleben expressed serious concerns regarding Germany's economic trajectory and its impact on Europe, stating, "We are greatly concerned about how Germany has become an economic burden for Europe and can no longer fulfill its role as an economic locomotive."

The survey also indicates a decline in the percentage of companies reporting their current situation as good; this rate has decreased from 28% in the summer to 26% now. Conversely, the proportion of those reporting poor conditions has risen from 23% to 25%. The industrial sector is particularly facing significant challenges, with 35% of companies describing their current situation as poor – a level of distress not seen since the severe crises of 2002 and 2003.

Wansleben emphasized the seriousness of the situation, comparing it to the crisis twenty years ago, and called for "profound reforms" to address the economic challenges facing Germany.